Publications

Background and Methodology

Espinoza D. and G. Serpa (2022). The cost of risk: An objective risk measure that captures the loss-averse nature of the average Joe. Submitted to the Risk Management Journal for review.

Espinoza D. (2014). Separating project risk from the time value of money: A step toward integration of risk management and valuation of infrastructure investments. International Journal of Project Management, 32, 1056-1072

Espinoza D. (2011) Contingency estimating using option theory: Closing the gap between theory and practice. Journal of Construction Management & Economics, 29, 913-927

Espinoza D. and L.X. Luccioni (2007) A simplified investment valuation model for projects with technical uncertainty and time to build. 11th International Conference on Real Options, Berkeley, California.

Espinoza D. and L.X. Luccioni (2007) An approximate solution for perpetual American option with time to build: An application to environmental remediation. International Journal of Business, Vol. 12, No. 3, 291-300.

Civil Infrastructure

Espinoza D. (2021). The value of risk… explicit pricing of risks can help. Project Finance & Infrastructure Journal, 3 June.

Nguyen N., Almarri K., H. Boussabaine (2020) A risk-adjusted decoupled-net-present-value model to determine the optimal concession period of BOT projects. Built Environment Project and Asset Management, Emerald Publishing Ltd. DOI 10.1108/BEPAM-12-2019-0134 (ahead of print)

Espinoza D., Rojo J., Cifuentes A., J. Morris (2020). DNPV: A valuation methodology consistent with prospect theory for infrastructure and capital investments consistent with prospect theory. Construction Management and Economics, vol. 38, No. 3, 259-274 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2019.1648842)

Cifuentes A. and D. Espinoza (2016) Infrastructure investment and the peril of discounted cash flow. Financial Times, Markets Insight, 3 November 2016

Gupta R., Morris J.W.F., D. Espinoza (2016) Financial sustainability as a metric for infrastructure projects. Proc. Geo-Chicago 2016: Sustainability, Energy, and the Geoenvironment, 14-18 August 2016, Chicago, Illinois

Espinoza D. and J.W.F. Morris (2015) Very long term care of mechanically stabilized earth berms: Limiting the liability of future shareholders. Geo-Strata, 19(2), 42-47, March/April 2015

Nguyen M. (2015) Risk evaluation in public-private partnership projects in the transport sector in Vietnam. Research Thesis, University of Liverpool, UK

Espinoza D. and J.W.F Morris (2013) Decoupled NPV: A Simple, Improved Method to Value Infrastructure Investments. Journal of Construction Management & Economics, 31(5), 471-496

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION

Acu.a-Coll N. and M. Sanchez-Silva (2023). Financial risk assessment of flexible infrastructure systems. Life-Cycle of Structures and Infrastructure Systems. 1853-1860.

Espinoza D. (2023). Changing the valuation paradigm to promote adaptive and resilient infrastructure investment: Connecting insurance concepts and valuation. Coalition for Disaster Resilience Investment Technical Conference. Adaptive pathways for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure. Vol 8, Sup 2, May 2023, pp. 33-37. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23789689.2023.2181552

Espinoza D., Rojo J., Philip W., and A. Eil (2023). Decoupled Net Present Value: Protecting Assets against Climate Change Risk by Consistently Capturing the Value of Resilient and Adaptable Investments. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure Journal. Adaptive Pathways for Resilient Infrastructure’ Special Issue. Vol. 8, SI, 323-336. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23789689.2022.2148453

Espinoza D. (2022). Changing the valuation paradigm to promote adaptive and resilient infrastructure investment: Connecting insurance concepts and valuation. Coalition for Disaster Resilience Investment Technical Conference. Adaptive pathways for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure New Delhi. Oct 12-13.

Espinoza D. (2022). HSBC contrarian sticks to ‘markets-know-best’ mantra. Financial Times, May 27, Letter.

Carmody L. and A. Chavarot (2021). Risk and Resilience: Addressing physical climate risks in infrastructure investments. Editors: G. de Battista, M. Birt, C. Canavan, C. Dodwell, D. Espinoza, N. Krishnan, N. Minella, C. Sanchez, G. Shrimali, and A. Smith. https://storage.googleapis.com/wp-static/wp_ccri/6dea3e47-ccri_riskandresilience_26.11.2021.pdf

Hill A. and D. Espinoza (2021). The role of cost-benefit analysis in the tragedy of the horizon. Project Finance & Infrastructure Journal, 6 October.

Espinoza D., Morris J., A. Hill (2020). Time is not Money, Risk is! A step towards a sustainable and equitable financial analysis practice, The Solutions Journal, Volume 11, Issue 4, December.

Espinoza D., J. Morris, H. Baroud, M. Bisogno, A. Cifuentes, A. Gentzoglanis, L. Luccioni, J. Rojo, F. Vahedifard (2020). The role of traditional discounted cash flows in the tragedy of the horizon: Another inconvenient truth. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. vol. 25, issue 4, pp. 643-660. 10.1007/s11027-019-09884-3.

Renewable Energy

Bellini, E. (2024). Research shows residential PV is becoming less attractive in Germany. PV Magazine, 23 October
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/10/23/research-shows-residential-pv-is-becoming-less-attractive-in-germany/

Kraemer, C. (2024). Using DNPV to determine the economic viability of residential photovoltaic systems in Germany: Is the investment still worth it? Renewable Energy. 237, Part A. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121526

Espinoza D., DeMelo L., D. Morley (2022). Making risk management count: Connecting physical risk with financial feasibility analysis. U.S Society on Dams 2022 Conference, San Diego, Investing in the Future: Sustainable Development of Dams and Levees.

Gentzoglanis A. (2019). Innovation, sustainability, and new regulatory approaches to hybrid power systems. 4th International hydropower systems workshop. Crete, Greece, May 22-23, 6 pp.

Martínez-Ruiz Y., Manotas-Duque D.F., H. Ramírez-Malule (2021). Evaluation of investment projects in photovoltaic solar energy using the DNPV methodology. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(1), 180-185.

Shimbar A. and S.B. Ebrahimi (2020). Political risk and valuation of renewable energy investments in developing countries. Journal of Renewable Energy, 145, 1325-1333.

Hurlimann, C. (2018). Valuation methods in renewable energy investments: An explanatory mixed-methods study among German and Swiss investment professionals. Ph.D. Thesis. The University of Gloucestershire, UK.

Shimbar A. and S.B. Ebrahimi (2017). Modified-decoupled net present value: The intersection of valuation and time scaling of risk in energy sector. Environmental Energy and Economic Research, 1, pp 347-362.

Gentzoglanis A. (2016). Financing energy projects: A comparative approach of competing methodologies. In Economics and Politics of Energy in Central Asia and Caucasus. Eurasian Research Institute. Editors N. Simsek and H.A Simsek. 63-84.

Humpert F.J. (2016) Analysis and development of investment evaluation methods for onshore wind energy projects. Research Thesis, Leibniz University, Hannover, Germany.

Piel J.-H., Humpert F.J., M.H. Breitner (2016) Applying a novel investment method with focus on risk: A wind energy case study. Proc. International Conference on Operations Research of the German Operation Research Society (GOR), 30 August 30 - 2 September 2016, Hamburg, Germany

Stetter C. (2016) Probabilistic risk modeling in a DNPV framework for photovoltaic investments. Research Thesis, Leibniz University, Hannover, Germany

Espinoza D. and J. Rojo (2015) Using DNPV for valuing investments in the energy sector: A solar project case study. Journal of Renewable Energy, 75, 44-49

Mei M. and Y. Jian (2015). Valuation model for hydropower project based on decoupled net present value. Journal of Information and Management Engineering, 37, No. 2, 228-231 (in Chinese)

Mining

Espinoza D. and G. Castro (2022). Incorporating TSF Management in Mine Valuations: The Integration of Physical and Market Risks using DNPV. Tailings and Mine Waste ’22 Conference, Denver, Colorado, USA.

Collier P., Rees I., Pocoe J., D. Espinoza (2022) Mineral Project Risk and Orebody Knowledge: Quantifying the Value of Drilling using Decoupled Net Present Value Analysis. 12th International Mining Geology Conference. 22-23 March, Brisbane, Australia, 2-25.

Collier, P. (2021) Mineral Project Risk and Orebody Knowledge: Quantifying the Value of Drilling using Decoupled Net Present Value Analysis. Research Thesis, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.

S-q Dou, J-y Liu, J-z Xiao, W. Pan (2020) Economic feasibility valuing of deep mineral resources based on risk analysis: Songtao manganese ore - China case study. Resources Policy Journal, 66, 12 pp

Espinoza D. and J. Rojo (2017) Towards sustainable mining (Part I): Valuing investment opportunities in the mining sector. Resources Policy Journal, 52, 7-18

Espinoza D. and J.W.F. Morris (2017) Towards sustainable mining (Part II): Accounting for mine reclamation and post reclamation care liabilities. Resources Policy Journal, 52, 29-38

Caldwell J. (2015) Why DNPV may be better than NPV.  www.Mining.com

SOLID WASTE

Shimbar A. and S.B. Ebrahimi (2017) The application of DNPV to unlock foreign direct investment in waste-to-energy in developing countries. Energy - The International Journal, 132, 186-193

Espinoza D., Morris J.W.F., J. Bier (2007) Valuing risk in landfill gas project development including emissions reduction credits: A real options perspective. Proc. 11th International Landfill & Waste Management Symposium, 1-5 October 2011, Sardinia, Italy

Oil & Gas

Ponomarenko T, Marin E., S. Galevskiy (2022). Economic Evaluation of Oil and Gas Projects: Justification of Engineering Solutions in the Implementation of Field Development Projects. Energies, 15, 3103. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15093103

Milanesi G.S. (2014) Separando el valor del tiempo de dinero y riesgo en la evaluación de proyectos: El valor presente neto desacoplado (VPND). Análisis Financiero, 126, 45-67 (in Spanish)

COMMERCIAL shipping

Schrader P., Piel J.-H., M.H. Breitner (2017) Decoupled net preset value - An alternative to the long-term asset value in the evaluation of ship investments. Proc. International Conference on Operations Research: Decision Analytics for the Digital Economy, 6-8 September 2017, Berlin, Germany

Schrader P. (2017).  Risk management in vessel finance using the DNPV approach. Research Thesis, Leibniz University, Hannover, Germany

Agriculture

López-Marín J., Gálvez A., del Amor F.M., J.M. Brotons (2020) The financial valuation risk in pepper production: The use of decoupled net present value. Mathematics 2021, 9(1), 13pp.

Brotons-Martínez, J.M., Gálvez A., Chávez-Rivera R., J. López-Marín (2021) The use of fuzzy decoupled net present value in pepper production.  In XXI Congress of the Int. Association for Fuzzy-Set Management and Economy “Digital Era and fuzzy applications in Management and Economy”, Autonomous University of Nuevo Leon (UANL), México, on July 7-9. 

Brotons-Martínez, J.M., Gálvez A., del Amor F.M., J. López-Marín (2021) The use of decoupled net present value in pepper production. In XXI International Finance Conference “Reactivación económica e impacto financiero en la era post COVID-19”, Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Perú, on September 22-24.